Amazon Deforestation Falls 71% Under Lula. Under Bolsonaro, It Rose 54%

The two numbers

PRODES is the system of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) that measures, by satellite, clear-cut forest loss in the Legal Amazon. Its year runs from August to July, and the rate is published in km². It has been Brazil's official yardstick since 1988, the same one used by governments of every party, and the two numbers in the headline come from it.

In Michel Temer's last full year, PRODES 2018, the Amazon lost 7,536 km². In Jair Bolsonaro's last full year, PRODES 2022, it lost 11,594 km²: 53.8% more. In between, 2021 hit 13,038 km², the peak since 2006. Added up over that government's four years, 45,612 km² of forest, an average of 11,403 km² a year.

Under Lula, the curve reversed in every year: 9,064 km² in 2023, 6,518 in 2024, 5,731 in 2025 and, by the estimate released on October 16, 2026, 3,335 km² in PRODES 2026, which covers August 2025 to July 2026. From 11,594 to 3,335 km² is a drop of 71.2%. It is the lowest rate in the historical series; the previous record, 4,571 km², was from 2012, under Dilma Rousseff. Lula's four years add up to 24,648 km², an average of 6,162 km² a year, a little over half the previous average.

Year by year

• 2018 (Temer): 7,536 km²
• 2019 (Bolsonaro): 10,129 km², +34%
• 2020: 10,851 km²
• 2021: 13,038 km², the peak
• 2022: 11,594 km²
• 2023 (Lula): 9,064 km², −22%
• 2024: 6,518 km²
• 2025: 5,731 km²
• 2026: 3,335 km², −42%, estimate

The Cerrado followed the same path in 2026: 5,516.69 km² cleared, 23.8% less than the year before and the lowest figure since measurement of the biome began, in 2001.

What the number measures, and what it doesn't

Two cautions for anyone repeating the percentages. The first is the calendar: since the PRODES year starts in August, 2019 includes five months of Temer, and 2023 includes five months of Bolsonaro. That is why the comparison by government uses the last full year of each, which is how INPE and environmental organizations do the math, and how Abestadão did it here.

The second is the status of the 2026 figure. The rate of 3,335 km² is an estimate made with priority images; the consolidated rate comes out in the first half of 2027 and usually changes little. In 2025, the estimate was 5,796 km² and the consolidated figure 5,731; in 2019, the estimate of 9,762 km² became 10,129. Even if the 2026 revision rises a few points, the drop from 2022 stays around 70%.

PRODES measures clear-cutting: forest turned into pasture, cropland or bare soil. Degradation by fire and selective logging, which also destroy forest, are measured by other INPE systems and are not in these numbers. This article does not attribute the drop to any specific measure; what the sources support is the trajectory, and it is in the infographic.