Japan, Italy and the U.S. Lead the G20's Debt Ranking

The Podium

The International Monetary Fund published the new edition of the World Economic Outlook on October 13, 2026, and with it the projection of each country's public debt for year-end. Among the G20's 19 national economies, the podium is the same as in the last decade, only higher: Japan's government owes 199.4% of GDP, Italy's 137.9% and America's 126.8%.

The indicator is general government gross debt, which adds up the federal government, states, municipalities and social security, as a share of everything the country produces in a year. Above 100%, the government owes more than the entire economy generates in twelve months. That is the case for seven of the 19: besides the top three, France (118.5%), Canada (115.6%), China (104.4%) and the United Kingdom (102%).

Where Brazil Stands

Brazil appears 8th, at 97% of GDP, just below the 100% line and above India (83.1%), South Africa (78%) and Argentina (69.3%). Germany, Europe's largest economy, is 12th, at 64.6%. Russia closes the list, at 19.3%.

Brazil's trend is upward. According to the IMF series, debt was 83.9% of GDP in 2022, rose to 93.3% in 2025, reaches 97% in 2026 and passes 100% in 2028, hitting 105.3% in 2031 if nothing changes. One caution: the IMF measures Brazilian debt differently from the Central Bank of Brazil, because it includes the government bonds held in the central bank's own portfolio. Under the Central Bank's concept, the number is lower. For comparing countries, the IMF's is the one to use, since it applies the same yardstick to everyone.

Where Each One Is Headed

The top three are not moving together. Japan is reducing: it had 228% in 2022 and is expected to reach 188.9% in 2031, with inflation and nominal growth doing the work. Italy holds steady near 137%. The United States is the case that worries the IMF itself the most: from 119.2% in 2022 to 126.8% in 2026 and 145% in 2031, with deficits the fund describes as historically high for a country not at war or in recession. China is the one rising fastest: from 77.3% in 2022 to 104.4% now and 122.1% in 2031.

What the Ranking Doesn't Say

The ranking is of the G20, not of the world. In the IMF's full database, with 226 countries and territories, Sudan leads with 334.4%, and Singapore, Bahrain and Greece also sit ahead of a good part of the list. And high debt alone is not a sign of crisis: Japan owes almost twice its GDP in yen, at low interest rates and almost entirely to Japanese creditors; the United States issues the world's reserve currency. Size matters, but the currency, the maturity, the interest rates and who holds the bonds matter just as much.