Education Goes Downhill in Rio de Janeiro

From 5th to 23rd Place

In 2015, Rio de Janeiro's state school system had the 5th best Ideb (Brazil's basic education quality index) for regular high school among the 27 state systems, with 3.6, tied with Paraná. In the 2025 assessment, released in August 2026, it appears in 23rd, with 3.7: the second lowest score in the country, shared with Amazonas, Roraima and Amapá, ahead of only the Federal District.

The numbers come from the official spreadsheet by state from Inep, the federal education research institute, the same one used in our piece on São Paulo. Inep does not publish a ranking; the position was calculated by counting how many systems have a higher score than Rio's. The trajectory: 5th in 2015, 16th in 2017, 19th in 2019, 12th in 2021, 26th in 2023 and 23rd in 2025. In ten years, the score rose by one tenth of a point. Paraná, which tied with Rio in 2015, reached 5.1.

What Falls to Each Government

The period spans five governors, which in Rio is not a figure of speech. Luiz Fernando Pezão governed from 2015 to the end of 2018, when the system fell from 5th to 16th place. Wilson Witzel took office in 2019, was suspended in August 2020 and removed from office in April 2021; the 2019 assessment, the only full one under his government, gave 19th place. Cláudio Castro, his deputy, governed from August 2020 to March 23, 2026, when he resigned on the eve of his trial at the electoral court (TSE). During his period the system rose to 12th in 2021, plunged to 26th in 2023 and returned to 23rd in 2025. Since March, the state has been governed on an interim basis by the president of the Court of Justice.

As in the São Paulo piece, the 12th place in 2021 comes with Inep's caveat about the assessment applied during the pandemic. We did not omit it for that reason.

The Score That Rose Without Students Learning More

Between 2023 and 2025, the state high school Ideb in Rio rose from 3.3 to 3.7. It looks like the good news of the decade. Agência O Globo looked at the two components of the index and found the following: the pass rate went from 80% to 91%, while the Saeb learning score (the national assessment of basic education) fell for the third time in a row, to 4.04, “the lowest level in the last 16 years.” The system began to allow students to “fail up to six subjects and still advance to the next grade.”

CartaCapital identifies the instrument: the Exceptional State Partial Progression Policy, created by State Decree 49,994 of November 17, 2025. The Ideb multiplies learning by flow. By passing more students, the index rises even when learning falls. Rio rose three places in the ranking with fewer students knowing Portuguese and math than in 2023.

This publication has a habit of pointing out numbers that improve because the ruler changed. That goes for exchange-rate quotes and it goes for Ideb. The caveat here is the same one CartaCapital makes: Inep did not release the breakdown of the 2025 Ideb by state, so the link between the decree and the rise is the most plausible reading, documented by the pass rate and by Saeb, and not an official figure.

What the Table Does Not Say

A ranking position is relative, and in Rio's case the fall has two faces: the score stood still for a decade while the country went up. The table also does not explain cause, and this analysis does not attribute the trajectory to a specific policy of the five governments, with one documented exception: the 2025 rise, which the coverage itself ties to the pass rule. No statement from Rio's Education Department on high school was found in the sources consulted; the piece will be updated if one appears.