American Spring: Lula's L and the blue tsunami

Together, We Are America

On February 8, at the Super Bowl halftime show, Puerto Rican star Bad Bunny sang in Spanish on the most American stage in American television. Near the end he said “God bless America” and began naming, one by one, countries of the Americas, including the United States and Canada. The ball he held read “Together, We Are America,” as the Associated Press reported.

That is the sense in which this spring is American. Brazilians, Mexicans, Argentines, Puerto Ricans and U.S. citizens are all Americans. Every country in the Americas is part of this story, with its own language, its own feuds and its own way of voting. In February, Bad Bunny put that idea on stage. Months later, two elections gave Abestadão reason to talk about spring.

First, Lula's L. Nine days later, the blue tsunami. In Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro lost the race for the Planalto (the presidential palace). In the United States, Donald Trump lost the Republican majority in both chambers of Congress. These two victories at the ballot box are what Abestadão calls the American Spring. In each country, groups with different interests found enough votes to beat the right that claimed to own the majority.

Lula's L

On October 25, 2026, Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff with 64.2 million votes, 51.79% of valid votes. It was a narrow win. In the final stretch, the Datafolha poll of October 22 showed the two tied at 50% of valid votes. But the polls had already hinted at where the candidacy drew its strength: since August, Datafolha had shown Lula ahead among women, lower-income voters and Catholics.

The blue tsunami

On November 3, the Democrats' blue swept over the U.S. Congress. The party won the House and the Senate and took the Republican majority away from Trump in both. In Texas, James Talarico won the Senate race in a state that had not elected a Democrat in a statewide contest in 32 years.

The SSRS poll for the Associated Press and other outlets, published by NPR, helps explain the House vote. Young voters and Latinos drifted away from the Republicans, and only about a third of Latino voters said they voted for the Republican candidate in their district. The Democrats also flipped districts in states such as Kentucky, Missouri and Utah. The turnaround combined shifts in the makeup of the vote with gains in places where the party had been losing ground.

#EleNão (“Not Him”) in Brazil in 2018, and No Kings in the United States, had already shown in the streets the capacity to mobilize against Bolsonaro and Trump. In 2026, the new fact appeared at the ballot box, with Lula's reelection and the Democratic turnaround in Congress.

Mexico got there first

Mexico had already given its own answer in 2024. Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate of the coalition led by Morena, was elected with 59.76% of the vote, keeping the left in the presidency. In October 2026, a national poll by El Financiero recorded 69% approval for her government. The Mexican parallel is that of a majority that has already reached power and remains strong in the polls. The next test at the ballot box comes on June 6, 2027, when the country renews its entire Chamber of Deputies.

The blue tsunami also echoed across the border. Sheinbaum highlighted the wins of two politicians of Mexican origin in the races for governor of California and Texas, Xavier Becerra and Gina Hinojosa.

The L crosses the Atlantic

“If Brazil could do it, Spain can too,” said Pedro Sánchez, according to CNN Brasil, pointing to Lula's reelection as inspiration for the Spanish campaign. Spain returns to the polls on November 29 to elect the Congress of Deputies and the Senate. The L has already entered the conversation. The race, however, starts with an edge for the right: in the RTVE average updated on November 2, the PP was ahead of the PSOE and would have an absolute majority if it struck a deal with Vox. That is where the reach of the Brazilian example gets measured.

Milei's embarrassment

In Buenos Aires, the blue tsunami exposed the size of Javier Milei's bet on Donald Trump. The Argentine president made Trumpism his great foreign reference point. In nine days, he watched Flávio Bolsonaro lose in Brazil and his main ally lose control of the U.S. Congress. La Nación reported pessimism at the Casa Rosada and worry about whether Washington's backing will continue, even though the government says it trusts that it will. Hence the embarrassment: Milei tied his government's international prestige to Trump and now hopes that his ally, weakened at home, still has the strength to help him.

Milei has already announced that he will run for reelection in 2027. Until then, Lula's L and the blue tsunami leave a message for those who got used to speaking in the name of the majority: a majority is counted at the ballot box.

At the Super Bowl, Bad Bunny raised a ball to say who belongs in America. In Brazil and the United States, millions of voters said at the ballot box who can form a majority.

The American Spring is something else: it overthrows no one, it votes.