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Analysis
Abestadão/World

Americans vote and bury MAGA

The three Senate candidates Trump hand-picked in key states lost. His party gave up the Senate, the House and four governorships. In exit polls, six in ten voters said Trump weighed on their vote, and only 38% approved of the president.

By Abestadão Newsroom2 min read

Adapted translation of the Portuguese original. Read the original.

Watercolor cartoon in a cemetery at dawn: a caricature of Donald Trump, in a suit and red tie, holds a wilted bouquet and his phone and looks astonished at a headstone reading MAGA 2016-2026, above freshly turned earth, with a shovel whose handle is shaped like a ballot box decorated with a blue ribbon; in the background, a line of voters wearing I Voted stickers walks toward the Capitol lit by the sun.Cartoon
Caricature of Donald Trump. The scene is satirical. AI-generated cartoon made under editorial direction, using Trump's official portrait (Wikimedia Commons) as reference. Caricature, not a photograph.

Donald Trump turned the midterm election into a plebiscite on himself. Americans accepted the invitation and answered. In CBS's exit poll, six in ten voters said Trump weighed on their vote for the House, and only 38% approved of the president, on track to be the worst mark for a president in a midterm election. On the Democratic side, the main reason to leave the house and vote was opposition to him.

The result went the same way. According to NBC, Democrats took the Senate, with seven flips and 54 seats on the morning of Wednesday, November 4, and the House, with an estimated 258 seats to 177. In the states, they flipped four governorships. The night's coverage is in this report and on the vote-count dashboard.

Trump's picks

The most direct test of Trumpism was the candidates Trump himself chose. In Michigan, he led the Republican unity effort around Mike Rogers. In Iowa, he joined the backing of Ashley Hinson. In North Carolina, he gave his endorsement to Michael Whatley, former chairman of the Republican National Committee.

All three lost. Rogers got 45.6% to El-Sayed's 52.4%. Hinson got 46.4% to Turek's 50.5%, in a seat that was Republican. Whatley took a beating of almost 20 points from Roy Cooper: 39.1% to 58.7%.

Neither the banner nor the middle ground

The defeat spared no version of the party. Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, lost a Republican seat, with 43% to his rival's 55.1%. Susan Collins, the moderate Republican from Maine, also fell. Vivek Ramaswamy lost the Ohio governorship to Amy Acton.

Trump's approval was negative in almost every state that decided the Senate, including those he won by more than ten points in 2024. The voter who gave Trump the White House two years ago took Congress away from him.

A death foretold, by the man himself

On the morning of the election, Trump was already preparing the explanation: he said that “the sitting president doesn't win” midterm elections. It is true that the president's party usually loses seats. Losing both Houses, four governorships and all of his picks in the key states is something else.

The movement has not vanished: Trump remains in the White House until 2029 and the Republican Party is still his. But from January on, every law, every appointment and every budget will pass through a Congress that voters handed to the opposition. MAGA as a project of unchecked power was buried at the polls on November 3, and the ones who picked up the shovel were the American people.

Sources

  • Senate races to watch and the balance of power in 2026 · NBC New York, Dec 28, 2025. Accessed Nov 4, 2026

    Trump led the Republican unity effort around Mike Rogers in Michigan, joined the backing of Ashley Hinson in Iowa and gave his endorsement to Michael Whatley in North Carolina.

  • 2026 Senate election results · NBC News, Nov 4, 2026. Accessed Nov 4, 2026

    At 9:20 a.m. Brasília time on 11/4, NBC projected Democratic control of the Senate, 54 to 44, with seven flips. Rogers lost to El-Sayed in Michigan (45.6% to 52.4%), Hinson to Turek in Iowa (46.4% to 50.5%) and Whatley to Roy Cooper in North Carolina (39.1% to 58.7%). Susan Collins lost in Maine (46.1% to 53.8%) and Ken Paxton in Texas (43.0% to 55.1%).

    Projections; Mississippi and Alaska were still open.

  • 2026 House election results · NBC News, Nov 4, 2026. Accessed Nov 4, 2026

    NBC projected Democratic control of the House. At 9:20 a.m. Brasília time on 11/4, there were 231 Democrats and 144 Republicans projected, with 29 Democratic flips; Decision Desk estimates 258 to 177.

    Seat estimate, not an official result.

  • 2026 Governor election results · NBC News, Nov 4, 2026. Accessed Nov 4, 2026

    Democrats flipped the governorships of Georgia, Ohio (Amy Acton over Vivek Ramaswamy), Iowa and Nevada (Ford over Governor Joe Lombardo).

  • 2026 elections live updates as midterm voters decide control of Congress · CBS News, Nov 3, 2026. Accessed Nov 3, 2026

    In CBS's exit poll, Trump's approval was 38%, below George W. Bush in 2006. Six in ten said Trump weighed on their House vote; on the Democratic side, the main reason was opposition to him. His approval was negative in almost every key Senate state, including where he won by double digits in 2024. On the morning of the election, Trump said the sitting president does not win midterm elections.

    Early exit poll numbers.

Topics: Democracy, Elections

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